The Kraken's #2 Overall Pick: How Excited or Worried Should I Be?

The Kraken finished making their first NHL Entry Draft picks today. The first round was Friday, and they used their top pick — #2 overall — to take Michigan center Matt Beniers.

Like any Sonics fan, I can think of a couple of #2 overall picks who turned out to be pretty ok. 

But like any Mariners fan, #2 overall picks frighten me. 

A little research put my mind at rest. 

The NHL draft is not the MLB draft where #2 overall picks sometimes give you only a few mediocre seasons or never play in a single &^*#$@# game for you at all. 

Nearly every NHL #2 overall pick has had a long and productive NHL career. Even the worst-performing picks played multiple seasons. More than a few, as you'd imagine, have become superstars. 

So buying a Beniers jersey is a pretty safe bet.

You can expect him to be on the roster opening day, likely playing 20 minutes per night. He might not be one of the team's best players right away, but it would be a massive disappointment — a shock, really — if he didn't turn out to be among the team's top players for many years. 

What about the draftees in the other 6 rounds?

I think the NBA comparison holds well here too, if you go back to the days when the NBA had a seven-round draft. There were (and still are) the occasional 2nd-round gems, but some of those guys never make the league. And the picks in the rest of the draft (equivalent to undrafted training camp invitees today) are very unlikely to contribute.

The NHL is not like the NFL, where second, third and fourth rounders almost always make the team, and you can count on at least one or two of the later round picks to contribute as well.

In the later rounds, one of unique factors of the NHL draft comes into play: When NHL teams draft a player, they don't necessarily sign them right away. They are reserving the player's rights while he toils away in the minor leagues or in college. They aren't under any obligation to sign him. So some of the players drafted in the lower rounds never actually sign an NHL contract, let alone play in the NHL.

Based on what I've learned, here's how I'm setting expectations for the Kraken's first draft.

1st round pick Matt Beniers (2nd overall): Should make the opening day roster, contribute and improve during his first few years, then ascend to stardom in his prime (around the 2025-2026 season). [All-time NHL #2 overall picks]

2nd round pick Ryker Evans (35th overall): Ideally would be good enough to play at the AHL (MiLB AAA equivalent) next year and progress to the Kraken by the 2022-23 season. No sure thing, 35th overall picks frequently stall before making the NHL. [All-time NHL #35 overall picks]

3rd round pick Ryan Winterton (67th overall): Has yet to turn 18, and has played only 53 games of minor league hockey. Presumably will go back to the minors and hopefully get good enough for the Kraken to sign him. [All-time NHL #67 overall picks]

4th round pick Ville Ottavainen (99th overall): He's 6'5", 221 lbs. at 18 years old. So the body is there. Would be a nice bonus if he's able to develop his skills. [All-time NHL #99 overall picks]

5th round pick Jacob Melanson (131st overall): An 18-year-old junior hockey right winger. I mean... if this is the best picture they could find? Expectations at zero. [All-time NHL #131 overall picks]

6th round pick Semyon Vyazovoy (163rd overall): Goaltending being a specialized skill, it's not unusual for a goalie picked in a late round to make the NHL. (Like, say, punters.) Kraken expansion pick Joey Daccord was a 199th overall pick. [All-time NHL #163 overall picks]

7th round pick Justin Janicke (195th overall): Despite being drafted, he'll almost assuredly still play college hockey — he's signed to play at Notre Dame. The Kraken own his rights during his college career and for 30 days after he leaves college.  [All-time NHL #195 overall picks]

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